Markets Weekly Notes
Jul 13 – Jul 19 · 2026-W29
1 event this week
🏛️ Post-AMLA assessment week Compliance
📈 Q2 earnings season opens with 88% beat rate Markets
🔄 Quiet week Data Engineering
🧠 Feynman Takeaway
Q2 2026 earnings season opened with an astonishing 88% beat rate — the strongest since 2021. 16.4% above estimates, 23.3% YoY growth. The 'last good earnings season' before JPMorgan's warning.
Q2 Earnings: 88% Beat Rate, 23.3% YoY Growth
In plain English
FactSet reported Q2 2026 earnings results: 88% of S&P 500 companies beat earnings estimates (strongest since 2021), average surprise was +16.4% above estimates, earnings growth was +23.3% YoY. The Mag 7 (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Tesla) remained the top contributors to index-level growth.
Analogy
88% of companies beating estimates is like 9 out of 10 students acing a test. The 'test' (earnings expectations) was set by analysts who didn't believe the earnings momentum would last. Turns out, it did — just barely.
Why it matters
This would likely be remembered as the peak of the cycle. JPMorgan warned on July 23 that the 'earnings fuel' was running out. The Q2 print was the final 'good news' before the rotation.