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Research Intermediate

July 2026 Market Conditions: Earnings Fuel Waning, Oil at $95+, and Sector Rotation Underway

JPMorgan warns the S&P 500's 'earnings fuel' is running out as of July 23, 2026 — the PPI-CPI spread has peaked, ISM orders-to-inventory ratio has declined for three consecutive months, and the market is rotating toward defensive assets. Oil surges past $95 on Iran/Hormuz Strait tensions. Core PCE remains sticky at 3.4%, the 10Y yield sits at 4.7%, and the market has begun pricing rate hikes rather than cuts. Small caps have rallied 22% in H1 2026 (best since 1991). Bitcoin is down 31% YTD, Gold down 7% — both declining simultaneously for the first time.

Jul 23, 2026
Research Advanced

Kyle (1985) - Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading

Kyle's seminal model of informed trading shows how an informed trader strategically splits orders to maximize profit while market makers adjust prices under adverse selection, introducing Kyle's lambda as a measure of market illiquidity.

Jan 1, 1985
Research Advanced

Glosten & Milgrom (1985) - Bid, Ask and Transaction Prices

The Glosten-Milgrom model explains the bid-ask spread as arising from adverse selection: market makers face a positive probability of trading against informed traders, so they set a spread compensating for the expected loss to informed order flow.

Jan 1, 1985
Research Advanced

Easley, Kiefer, O'Hara & Paperman (1996) - Probability of Informed Trading (PIN)

Easley, Kiefer, O'Hara and Paperman develop a structural model to estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN) from order flow data, providing an empirical measure of information asymmetry in securities markets.

Jan 1, 1996
Research Intermediate

Fama & French (1993) - Common Risk Factors in Stock and Bond Returns

Fama and French extend the CAPM by adding size (SMB) and value (HML) factors to explain cross-sectional variation in stock returns, demonstrating that the three-factor model explains patterns that the CAPM cannot.

Jan 1, 1993
Research Intermediate

Fama & French (2015) - A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model

Fama and French extend their three-factor model by adding profitability (RMW) and investment (CMA) factors, providing a more complete description of the cross-section of average stock returns.

Jan 1, 2015
Research Intermediate

Markowitz (1952) - Portfolio Selection (Modern Portfolio Theory)

Harry Markowitz's Portfolio Selection establishes the mathematical foundation for diversification, showing that portfolio risk depends on asset correlations, and introduces the efficient frontier concept.

Jan 1, 1952
Research Intermediate

Sharpe (1964) - Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium (CAPM)

William Sharpe's CAPM provides the theory of how assets are priced in equilibrium, showing that expected return is linearly related to systematic risk measured by beta.

Jan 1, 1964
Research Advanced

Black & Scholes (1973) / Merton (1973) - Options Pricing Model

The Black-Scholes-Merton model provides a closed-form solution for European option prices via a no-arbitrage argument based on continuous delta-hedging, founding the modern options market.

Jan 1, 1973
Research Intermediate

Kahneman & Tversky (1979) - Prospect Theory: Decision Under Risk

Prospect theory describes how people actually make decisions under risk: loss aversion (~2x), reference dependence, and probability weighting. It is the foundation of behavioral finance.

Jan 1, 1979
Research Intermediate

Barberis & Thaler (2002) - A Survey of Behavioral Finance

Barberis and Thaler survey behavioral finance's two pillars: limits to arbitrage (why mispricing persists) and psychology (systematic biases in beliefs and preferences), showing how they explain asset pricing anomalies.

Jan 1, 2002
Research Intermediate

Barber & Odean (2000) - Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth

Barber and Odean show that individual investors who trade more frequently earn significantly lower returns, establishing that overconfidence leads to excessive trading which harms portfolio performance.

Jan 1, 2000
Research Intermediate

Shiller (1981) - Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to Be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?

Shiller demonstrates that stock prices are 5-13 times more volatile than can be justified by future dividends, providing influential evidence against the efficient market hypothesis.

Jan 1, 1981
Research Advanced

Amihud (2002) - Illiquidity and Stock Returns: Cross-Section and Time-Series Effects

Amihud develops the ILLIQ measure (absolute return / dollar volume) and shows that expected stock returns are positively related to illiquidity across stocks and over time.

Jan 1, 2002
Research Intermediate

Lakonishok, Shleifer & Vishny (1994) - Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk

LSV show contrarian strategies outperform because investors extrapolate past growth too far, not because value strategies are riskier. Value stocks do NOT have higher risk in bad times.

Jan 1, 1994
Research Intermediate

Bollen, Mao & Zeng (2011) - Twitter Mood Predicts the Stock Market

Bollen, Mao and Zeng show that the 'Calm' mood dimension from Twitter feeds can predict DJIA movements with 87.6% accuracy, demonstrating the predictive power of social media sentiment.

Jan 1, 2011
Research Advanced

Feature Engineering at Scale: Building ML-Ready Market Data Pipelines with dbt and Iceberg

Production feature engineering pipelines for quantitative finance: transforming raw tick data into ML-ready feature sets using dbt for SQL transformations, Iceberg for time-travel access, and Dagster for asset orchestration.

Jun 8, 2026
Research Advanced

Real-Time Data Engineering for Algorithmic Trading: From Tick Data to Execution Signals

Production-grade data pipelines for algorithmic trading systems: handling market data at microsecond latency, feature engineering stream processing, backtesting infrastructure, and DataOps orchestration.

Jun 8, 2026
Research Advanced

S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic -- 🧬 SCIENCE 2026-06-07

Summary Today in SCIENCE, the top story is "S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic", which gathered 1405 points on Hacker News -- nearly 15x higher than the av

Jun 7, 2026
Research Advanced

Meta confirms 1000s of Instagram accounts were hacked by abusing its AI chatbot -- 📈 STOCK 2026-06-07

Summary Today in STOCK, the top story is "Meta confirms 1000s of Instagram accounts were hacked by abusing its AI chatbot", which gathered 546 points on Hacker News -- nearly 5x higher than

Jun 7, 2026
Research Advanced

Gov.uk has replaced Stripe with Dutch provider Adyen -- 🛡️ AML 2026-06-07

Summary Today in AML, the top story is "Gov.uk has replaced Stripe with Dutch provider Adyen", which gathered 559 points on Hacker News -- nearly 13x higher than the average of other articl

Jun 7, 2026
Research Advanced

Nvidia RTX Spark -- 📈 STOCK 2026-06-02

Trending (HackerNews, 2026-06-02) Nvidia RTX Spark (discussion) (405 pts) OpenAI frontier models and Codex are now available on AWS (discussion) (326 pts) ChatGPT for Google Sheets exfiltrates wor

Jun 2, 2026
Research Advanced

Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI? -- 🧬 SCIENCE 2026-06-02

Trending (HackerNews, 2026-06-02) Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI? (discussion) (534 pts) Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC (discussion) (508 pts) AI A

Jun 2, 2026
Research Advanced

Iran stops negotiations with U.S., vows to completely block Strait of Hormuz -- 🛡️ AML 2026-06-02

Trending (HackerNews, 2026-06-02) Iran stops negotiations with U.S., vows to 'completely' block Strait of Hormuz (discussion) (101 pts) Show HN: Eyeball (discussion) (60 pts) The Infosec Phraseboo

Jun 2, 2026
Research Advanced

Microsoft Office 2019 and 2021 for Mac view-only conversion -- 📈 STOCK 2026-06-01

Trending (HackerNews, 2026-06-01) Microsoft Office 2019 and 2021 for Mac view-only conversion (discussion) (998 pts) I put a datacenter GPU in my gaming PC (discussion) (318 pts) ChatGPT for Googl

Jun 1, 2026
Research Intermediate

Global Stock Markets Volatility Amid Interest Rate Uncertainty

Trending Topics (HackerNews, 2026-05-10) S&P 500 enters correction territory as inflation data surprises (discussion) (540 points) Retail investors pour money into AI ETFs despite warnings (di

May 10, 2026
Research Advanced

Quantum computing startups see record $4.2B in venture funding during Q1 2026

Quantum computing venture funding reaches $4.2B in Q1 2026, analyzing the major rounds, technology approaches (superconducting, trapped ion, photonic), and the path toward commercial quantum advantage.

May 9, 2026
Research Advanced

JWST detects unexpected atmospheric chemistry on temperate exoplanet in habitable zone

JWST reveals unexpected atmospheric composition on a temperate exoplanet in the habitable zone, including potential biosignature gases and unusual chemical disequilibrium that challenges current atmospheric models.

Apr 22, 2026
Research Intermediate

EV battery supply chain diversification accelerates with 12 new gigafactories

Mapping the global EV battery supply chain as 12 new gigafactories break ground across North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia, reducing dependence on Chinese battery supply chains.

Apr 19, 2026
Research Intermediate

EU AI Act Enters Force — Global Implications for Tech

Trending Topics (HackerNews, 2026-04-15) EU AI Act officially enters into force (discussion) (620 points) OpenAI releases GPT-5 with improved reasoning (discussion) (580 points) Google's new AI se

Apr 15, 2026
Research Intermediate

AI hardware spending reaches $300B annual run rate: who benefits?

Analysis of the AI hardware investment boom as annual spending reaches $300B run rate, examining which companies capture value across the stack — from NVIDIA and AMD to custom ASIC designers and memory manufacturers.

Mar 28, 2026
Research Intermediate

Neuralink first human trial results: 12 patients achieve brain-computer interface milestones

Detailed report on Neuralink's first human clinical trial results across 12 patients, examining cursor control accuracy, communication speeds for locked-in patients, and long-term implant biocompatibility.

Mar 15, 2026
Research Intermediate

New room temperature superconductivity claim: LK-99 replication attempt yields unexpected results

Comprehensive analysis of the latest room temperature superconductivity claim, following rigorous replication attempts by 15 independent laboratories showing partial resistance drops but no definitive zero resistance.

Feb 25, 2026
Research Intermediate

Global semiconductor supply chain reshuffling: the post-Taiwan scenario

Analysis of semiconductor supply chain diversification as companies accelerate fab construction in US, Europe, and Japan, examining timelines, costs, and technical challenges of geographic redistribution.

Feb 14, 2026
Research Intermediate

TSMC 2nm process enters volume production: what it means for global semiconductor supply

TSMC begins volume production of 2nm chips, examining the technical milestones achieved, production yields, customer allocations, and implications for the global semiconductor supply chain and geopolitics.

Jan 22, 2026