Markets Weekly Notes
Jun 15 – Jun 21 · 2026-W25
3 events this week
⚡⚡ GENIUS Act CIP rule detailed Compliance
⚡⚡⚡ Warsh's first FOMC + Iran ceasefire + Reg NMS proposal Markets
⚡⚡ Flink 2.3.0 with Native S3 FS Data Engineering
🧠 Feynman Takeaway
Kevin Warsh's first FOMC: shorter statement, no forward guidance, 5 task forces. Iran MOU signed — oil collapses from $125 to $70-85. Reg NMS proposal published in Federal Register.
Warsh's First FOMC: No Forward Guidance, 5 Task Forces
In plain English
Kevin Warsh chaired his first FOMC meeting. The statement was notably shorter (removed the 'patient' language and forward guidance entirely). The Fed formed 5 task forces to review monetary policy framework, balance sheet, payments, climate, and AI. Rates stayed at 3.5-3.75%. Markets interpreted: Warsh is a hawk who wants flexibility.
Analogy
Warsh's first statement was like a new CEO's first memo: short, direct, and signaling 'we're going to do things differently here.' The removal of forward guidance was the biggest change — markets would now have to guess what the Fed would do next.
Why it matters
This was the beginning of the 'Warsh regime': less communication, more flexibility, and a focus on framework review over immediate action.
US and Iran Sign MOU: Hormuz Reopens, Oil Crashes
In plain English
The US and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding ending the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz reopened. Oil prices collapsed from ~$125 to $70-85/barrel in days. The biggest oil spike in decades was over.
Analogy
When the Strait of Hormuz reopened, it was like unblocking a highway after a 4-month traffic jam. The oil that was stuck could flow again, and prices plummeted.
Why it matters
The oil collapse was deflationary — exactly what the Fed needed to see. But the geopolitical risk premium didn't fully disappear: oil would remain volatile in the $70-95 range through July.
SEC's Reg NMS Proposal Published in Federal Register
In plain English
The SEC's proposal to rescind Reg NMS Rules 611 and 610(e) was published in the Federal Register, opening a 60-day comment period. The formal rulemaking process began.
Analogy
Publishing in the Federal Register is like a restaurant posting its new menu. Everyone can see what's changing, and they have 60 days to send feedback before the kitchen starts cooking.