Markets Weekly Notes
Apr 20 – Apr 26 · 2026-W17
2 events this week
🏛️ FinCEN reform analysis week Compliance
⚡⚡ Oil peaks + earnings warning Markets
🔄 Quiet week Data Engineering
🧠 Feynman Takeaway
Oil hit ~$125/barrel — the peak of the Hormuz crisis. JPMorgan warned earnings momentum was deteriorating. A double warning shot for markets.
Oil Peaks at ~$125/barrel
In plain English
Brent crude hit approximately $125/barrel — the peak of the Hormuz crisis. US-Iran ceasefire talks collapsed. President Trump threatened to 'destroy Iranian bridges and power plants' if Hormuz ships were targeted. Energy markets were in full crisis mode.
Analogy
$125 oil is like filling up your car and realizing it costs as much as a nice dinner. For airlines, shipping companies, and manufacturers, it's devastating. For energy stock investors, it's Christmas.
Why it matters
This was the high-water mark of the energy crisis. Oil would gradually decline after the June ceasefire, but the structural damage to inflation and earnings was done.
JPMorgan Warns: Earnings Momentum Deteriorating
In plain English
JPMorgan's equity strategy team published a note warning that S&P 500 earnings momentum was peaking. Key indicators: PPI-CPI spread declining (companies can't pass through costs), ISM Manufacturing Orders-to-Inventory ratio declining for 3 straight months. Defensive rotation was signaled.
Analogy
When JPMorgan — the biggest bank in America — says 'earnings are about to get worse,' markets listen. It's like your doctor telling you to stop eating junk food: you might not like it, but you should probably listen.
Why it matters
This warning turned out to be prescient. By July, the S&P would be stuck at 7,499 resistance, unable to break through, and sector rotation would be in full swing.