Markets Weekly Notes
Mar 16 – Mar 22 · 2026-W12
2 events this week
🏛️ Quiet compliance week Compliance
🏦🏛️ Fed holds + inflation spike Markets
🔄 Quiet week Data Engineering
🧠 Feynman Takeaway
Fed held rates at 3.5-3.75%. PCE inflation hit 4.1% — driven entirely by the energy crisis. The rate-cut narrative died.
Fed Holds Rates, PCE at 4.1%
In plain English
The March FOMC meeting held rates steady at 3.5-3.75%. The Fed's Monetary Policy Report showed PCE inflation at 4.1% — well above the 2% target. The culprit: energy prices surged after the Middle East conflict began. The rate-cut narrative officially died.
Analogy
Imagine you're trying to lose weight (lower inflation), but someone keeps bringing you donuts (energy prices). The Fed is saying 'we can't go off our diet while these donuts keep showing up.' Rate cuts won't happen until energy inflation subsides.
Why it matters
This was the moment 'higher for longer' became the consensus view. Markets stopped pricing cuts and started pricing potential hikes. The implications for every asset class were profound.
CLARITY Act Stalls as Coinbase Withdraws Support
In plain English
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong withdrew support for the CLARITY Act over a provision banning passive stablecoin yield. The crypto bill's momentum stalled. Senator Lummis called it a 'big setback.'
Analogy
Imagine a bipartisan infrastructure bill that everyone loves — until the last minute, when someone adds a 'no bicycle lanes' clause that makes the cycling lobby walk out. That's CLARITY Act: consensus shattered by one controversial provision.
Why it matters
The stablecoin yield ban would prove to be the CLARITY Act's most contentious issue. It would take until May to get the bill back on track.