Markets Weekly Notes
Feb 23 – Mar 1 · 2026-W09
2 events this week
🧠 Feynman Takeaway
The biggest geopolitical event of 2026: the US-Iran conflict begins. Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. Oil prices spike toward $100+. Everything changes.
US-Iran Conflict: Strait of Hormuz Closed
In plain English
The US-Iran conflict erupted. The Strait of Hormuz — the most important oil chokepoint in the world, carrying 20% of global seaborne crude — was effectively closed. Oil prices surged from ~$75 to over $100 in days. Brent would eventually hit $125 in April.
Analogy
Imagine someone blocking the only highway into a city where 20% of all food deliveries arrive. That's the Strait of Hormuz closing. Oil — the world's most important commodity — just lost its main shipping lane.
Why it matters
This single event reshaped 2026. It drove inflation (Core PCE hit 4.1%), killed the rate-cut narrative, boosted energy stocks, crushed airlines and discretionary spending, and turned the S&P 500's earnings momentum from expansion to peak.
Oil Spikes to Multi-Year Highs
In plain English
Brent crude surged from ~$75 to over $100/barrel. Gasoline prices jumped. The energy shock rippled through every sector: airlines sold off, consumer staples scrambled, and inflation expectations re-anchored higher.
Analogy
Oil at $100+ is like the price of bread suddenly tripling. Everything that uses oil — shipping, manufacturing, commuting, flying — gets more expensive. And every company that uses those things sees its margins squeezed.
Why it matters
This wasn't just a market event — it was the defining macro event of 2026. Everything that followed (sticky inflation, rate hike expectations, sector rotation, JPMorgan's earnings warning) traced back to this moment.