Markets Weekly Notes
Feb 2 – Feb 8 · 2026-W06
1 event this week
🧠 Feynman Takeaway
Kevin Warsh confirmation hearings began. He signaled an AI-optimistic outlook that could allow rate cuts even as an 'inflation hawk.' Markets bought the narrative.
Warsh Channels Greenspan on AI Productivity
In plain English
In his confirmation process, Warsh signaled he believed AI could boost productivity enough to allow lower rates without stoking inflation. The Financial Times reported: 'Warsh channels Alan Greenspan in AI productivity bet.' Markets responded by steepening the yield curve.
Analogy
Imagine an inflation hawk who says 'I'm worried about prices, BUT I think AI might make factories so efficient that prices naturally fall — so maybe we CAN cut rates.' That's Warsh: a hawk who loves productivity stories.
Why it matters
This nuanced stance — hawkish on inflation, bullish on AI productivity — would define Warsh's early tenure. The 'Warsh put' became market lore: if AI delivers productivity gains, rate cuts follow.