Markets Weekly Notes
Dec 29 – Jan 4 · 2026-W01
1 event this week
🧠 Feynman Takeaway
January 2026 opened with a whimper for markets — the calm before the tariff storm, the Hormuz crisis, and a new Fed chair.
New Year, Same Uncertainty
In plain English
Markets opened 2026 cautiously. The big story was what didn't happen: no rate cuts, no trade deal, no resolution to the 2025 tariff hangover. The S&P 500 drifted sideways, digesting the previous year's Liberation Day shock.
Analogy
Imagine waking up after a huge party and tiptoeing around the living room assessing the damage. That was January 1 for markets — still recovering from the tariff hangover of 2025.
Why it matters
The 'wait-and-see' posture wouldn't last. Within weeks, a new Fed chair nomination, a Middle East war, and the biggest market structure reform in decades would shake things up.